So as a history majour i've been looking recently at a lot of ancient civilisations and taking note of the various factors that contributed to their decline and eventual collapse (though I hate to use that word as I believe not in the collapse of a society but rather massive reorganisations of political, military, and economic forces.  Change /= destruction).

We see the Roman Empire and its decline, caused in great part by internal strife coupled with external pressures and the inability to continue with its primary economic pursuit, namely the expansion of territory and capture of slaves/etc. from surrounding regions, and subsequent collapse into petty fiefdoms and clan-based/feudal regions dominated by those with enough charisma and strength to gather fighters under a banner. 

It happened, doubtless, but here I venture forth a question historians don't often seem to make: were they aware of this iminent shift?  Were the Romans in the 5th century AD aware that soon the world they knew would change so greatly that emphasis in Europe would shift from the Mediterranean to the Northwestern regions for more than 1500 years?  Were they aware of the crushing changes at their doorstep, or did they simply go on with their lives as they always had?

I ask this question because I believe I see factors at work to bring about a new "Dark Age", as it is ignorantly referred to, which is to say a massive reorganisation of the political, social, economic, and military factors present in our world.

Suburban society is the foundation of the United States. People have migrated away from the rural and urban regions of the nation to exist in these veritable bubbles of isolation, this Purgatory of the US lifestyle.  It is supplied via an unceasing reinforcement of trucks delivering goods on a constant basis; these trucks are the lifelines of this way of life and without them suburbia will wither and die.

Only a fool thinks, however, that the unceasing stream of supply will continue indefinitely.  Yes dear folk, I speak of Oil and its decline.  I do not think that we shall reach the point where one day we shall all say "OH MY!  We have run out of oil!" but doubtless we will reach the point of 8,9, dare I say 10 or even 15 dollars a gallon.  The lifeline of this suburban age WILL be severed, it is inevitable, and the only hope we have is the creation of some alternative fuel source or mode of transportation to supply these suburban islands. 

But here we yet again reach another difficult point: where will these alternative fuel sources come from?  Ethanol?  Shale oil? Hydrogen fuel cells?  Each has its own problems.  Ethanol would require shifting massive amounts of farmland towards its creation and, in best light, provide merely a temporary respite.  Shale oil at our current technological state requires more energy to extract than we are capable of extracting.  Hydrogen fuel cells are still far beyond our technological ability.

What then?  I do not deny that some day we will master SOME form of alternative fuel source, but I ask you this: will we be in time?  Will we be able to create this fuel source in time to comfortably transfer over the entire nation?  I think that is foolishly optimistic wish.

Consider this: Tokyo's subway system is among the most advanced in the world and millions of people depend on it for daily transportation.  What if that system were to suddenly stop?  Certainly there are alternative means of reaching work, school, etc.  There is walking, riding a bike, many things, but nevertheless the vast majority of the opulation would be denied access essential destinations i.e. work places.  Say we disable it for a week.  After the week we have the trains up and running again.  Does this repair the damage caused by that week of immobility?  The damage is already done, it cannot be undone.  Entering an entirely new fuel source into a national economy and society will not be so smooth as suddenly having subway access again, either.  Do you see what i'm saying here?

If the gap between the time we can say that an alternative fuel source is in majority use and the time when the majority of society becomes unable to maintain mobility and supply via personal vehicles is large enough it WILL cause a massive shift in US socio-economic status.  There is absolutely no question of this whatsoever: if the gap is too wide the shift WILL occur and may, in future years, be seen by our descendents as "Collapse".

If this dreadful gap is too wide, much too wide, then I cannot help but see the following:  People will flock from suburban centres to urban and rural areas.  Overcrowding and inability to supply will create famine and support the formation of gangs and civilian militia.  A twisted form of urban feudalism will take place in the cities and the national government, in a desperate attempt to retain what is left of its security and power, will send out military units to quell these groups.  These military units, if not supplied and maintained, will simply turn into personal armies under charismatic leaders promising survival and a "return to the old days".  Pseudo militaries and civil strife will be the watchwords of the day and much, if not all, of the country will fracture and turn in on itself.  Thus the "Modern Dark Age" sets in. 


Will we be able to keep that gap small enough to avoid such drastic changes?  Will we be able to keep that gap small enough that we're only in for a rough ride and not a total shift in the way we view and interact with our world?  I can only hope so.