Hi, I don't play this game, but I know a little about economics. I see some confusion to auction valuation even among the high level players.

We'll start with a simple thought experiment. Suppose the auction is simply a pile of munny, and the munny is worth $40k to one player and $10k to the other player. In a 1v1, ignoring minimum raises and things like rushes, the expected final auction price is ($40k + 10k)/2 = $25k. Each player will have a 50-50 chance of winning the bid at $25k.

Here's why. Suppose I'm the $10k player, and I bid less than $25k. Then the opposing player will grab the auction, making more than $15k profit. If I bid more than $25k, then the opposing player will leave the auction alone, and I'll lose more than $15k. If we assume that losing $15k is the same as your opponent getting $15k, then $25k is exactly the price at which your opponent doesn't care whether he bids or not. If you deviate from this price high or low, then your opponent gets an advantage either way.

What that means is that the moment the auction appears, the $10k player has already lost $15k. It's a sunk cost. As an example, if you have teleportation and your opponent doesn't, and pirates are worth $60k to you, then every time a pirate auction appears, you've hit a $30k jackpot. You can try to position yourself so that favorable auctions appear.

This is the first order approximation, and should form the starting point of your thoughts. But there are other things to consider. For example, if your opponent thinks the pile of cash is worth only $30k to himself when it's really worth $40k to himself, then you can win the auction at $21k, and he'll let it go. Or if you desperately need cash and you're a $10k player vs. a $40k player, then you may want to bid lower, since losing $15k is worse than your opponent gaining $15k. Similar things apply if you're in a rushing position; if your opponent will receive favorable auctions that will rescue him from an early buyout, then your rush is doomed. If you're in a corner of the map while your opponent is in the middle, then tile auctions will prefer him over you. In a many-player game, the dynamics change again so that more game theory comes into play. There are other things I'm leaving out as well.

It's worth knowing how auctions work.