If I say the models are off by several hundred percent on the magnitude in change over the last decade, and in the wrong direction to boot, I get inane responses about how I'm not a scientist and they know better than me. The actual discrepancy between the models and current temperatures? The models are accurate because the IPCC said so, pay no attention to reality! Or maybe the odd "it's the Sun stupid!" like they haven't been claiming all along that solar variance is minor compared to the rate of increase cause by CO2.
Psychoak, you misunderstand the model's limitations. The models are intended to describe average temperature increases, they are not intended to describe an El Nino, or a volcanic eruption, or a sun that's quieter than normal. Those are relatively short-term effects (of the order of 1 decade) and those are simply not relevant for making predictions about 100+ years into the future.
You're saying they are invalid because they can't simulate some short-term effects... but they weren't designed for that. So it's only natural that they cannot describe a freak coincidence of mitigating effects.
What's fairly reliable in the models:
- the effects of CO2 and the water vapor feedback.
What's fairly unreliable in the models:
- the effects of cloud cover.
- melting of ice sheets.
- the influence of mankind (desertification, emission of enormous amounts of aerosols)
and perhaps other things as well.
Do those things matter? The cloud cover, that could matter. However it's unclear what direction cloud cover will take ... will there be more clouds, or just as many, or just thicker clouds, and which kind? And how much mitigation effect will they have?
Until this is figured out, you can't say that global warming will be minimal. Because you just don't know.
What you CAN say is, that global warming will be a very big problem because of the other effects (which are known). You cannot rely entirely on hope that somehow, a magic cloud will come along and solve all our problems for us.
You can, of course, look back in the past when temperatures were higher and measure the approximate CO2 level at the time. Then you'll have a real-life example of a real-world climate system INCLUDING clouds and all other things.
As it turns out, the world was pretty hot with higher CO2 levels.
And there's no reason to assume that the clouds were different at the time.
Even the presence of extensive deserts couldn't mitigate the global temperature.
And a second point - you're basing your conclusions on just 1 data set (temperature), for a very limited period of time (you compare 2000 with 1934 in the USA).
You are ignoring a shitload of evidence - namely increasing heat content of the ocean, rapid melting of glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica, northward migration of vegetation and wildlife (yes this is also measureable), thawing of permafrost, and so on ...