I'm going to rattle off a few suggestions/observations for overland map and AI, and diplomatic standing adjustments.
Overland-
1. As far as I can tell, the PRIMARY determining factor of an AI attack is the difference in power rating. Now, within power rating is the military strength rating, which has predominantly more impact than any other kind of rating I think. I.e, once you have a comparable military to the AI, ALL the other values that factor into power rating push you well beyond the threshold for where an AI will choose to attack you.
1a. So I think the "range of aggressive action" should be changed, so that money, tech, spells, pop, ect.... do not factor as heavily into whether or not the AI thinks it can win. Case in point: A 3-troop squad of basic soldiers will trump a single unit of advanced gear troops, because of damage scaling. The AI regularly fails to account for this when the player brings better armies to bear on them. The inverse needs to be true for the AI. It needs to realize that a 3-troop strength unit of basic troops will steamroll the player's fancier, smaller units. So basically, the AI should take more risks. Sure it may open them up to a counter attack....but we're not worried about AI players losing that badly.
As human players, we want an opponent that will sometimes take action, will fight to defend themselves, but still can ultimately be beaten. Prior to 1.09, the first and last points were true, but not the second. In 1.09, the second and third points are true...but the first is not.
Diplomatic standing adjustments-
There's not enough going on here. Secondly, the overall system for "Ally/Warm/Close/Neutral/Cool/Unfriendly/Hostile/War" is a little simplistic.
1. There needs to be more faction relationship adjustment modifiers, like:
(You have more/less gildar than us. +1/-1)
(Your technology is superior/inferior to ours. +1/-1)
(Your magic is superior/inferior to ours. +1/-1)
(We are trading. +1)
(Your borders are touching mine. -2)
(We have children in a dynasty together. +1)
(You traded favorably with us. 1+(Final player trade value - Final AI trade value), for 3 years.)
(You sacked one of our cities. -3 for 3 years, -2 for 4 years, -1 for 5 years)
(You killed one of our children. -2)
(You are allied with our enemy. -2)
2. Factions should react differently to some facets of your Empire based on how they feel about you. I.e, if you're on good terms, they should become more friendly as the power gap between you increases. If you're not on good terms, everything that makes you more powerful than your neighbors makes them increasingly hostile toward you, unless you go out of your way to increase your standing with them.
So current faction standing is the fulcrum on which most other diplomatic relationship adjustments turn. It's what decides whether a difference between your faction and another is viewed as positive by that faction, or negative.
This would be tricky to balance, because of things that permanently keep diplomatic relations in the negative, versus things that have a positive impact. But I think it'd make for truer AI reactions to the growth of the player's empire. If you box in an AI that is friendly, they shouldn't hand wave that fact. They should like you a little less as your kingdom totally overshadows their's.
Because in the end, diplomacy is just too easy. Your power scale increasing relative to the AI means they get more and more docile as time goes on, rather than more hostile the threat of a player invasion increases. Once you add a single diplomatic node to your empire, you've got all the extra trading grist to get the other players to do what you want, and all they're getting in return is a meaningless resource they don't know how to use.
Rather than basically racing the AI to the top of the power rating chart, and then checking the AI every time it gets too close to our current power rating...faction relations should be about trying to manage other faction's opinion of your's as your power increases, whether through bribes, real diplomacy or military action. You should be able to settle peace treaties with people that HATE you, and it doesn't mean they don't stop hating you....but at least you're not at a official state of war.