i think Civ 5 will fail to elemental because elemental is something new in turns of being fantasy and having RPG elements(way better then FFH2), while Civ 5 is based on the older ones like citys being one tile so on.
given the state of the video game market, there's very little possibility of such a high-profile failure. even if Civ 5 delivers only the gameplay in Civ 4, it'll still sell like hotcakes. the brand is really that strong.
the only way it could "fail" is if it releases with major bugs that are not quickly patched. and I just don't see that happening.
however, not failing is not the same as succeeding. I am a loyal follower of the Civ series, but I doubt that Civ 5 will deliver anything but tweaks to their (already quite successful) formula. I know that there were things in Civ 4 that annoyed me, most of them were also in Civ 3 because they're intrinsic to the design of that game.
Though it's an aspirational target, Elemental has the potential to be a better game than Civ 5. (Or it might end up they're both great games and not directly comparable.) Because Elemental is not constrained by what worked in the last version, they have much more potential to deliver a fresh and exciting experience.
If that's what you mean by "Civ 5 failing to elemental" then you might be right.
I too look forward to both games.
